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Working Papers

Optimal Policy with Opposing Externalities: Evidence from Antibiotics
Edward Kong, Erica Shenoy, Alyssa Letourneau
The threat of antibiotic resistance has generated substantial policy attention toward reducing
antibiotic use. However, antibiotic use creates a second, opposing externality: innovation
incentives rely on revenues from antibiotic sales. While direct payments for innovation have been proposed to decouple use and revenues, their optimal size and welfare consequences remain
poorly understood. This paper introduces a framework for optimal antibiotic policy that
accounts for use, resistance, and innovation. We estimate key parameters—the demand for antibiotics, the use-resistance externality, and the effect of use on mortality—using electronic health records data and quasi-experimental variation in antibiotic restrictions. We embed these estimates in a structural model to evaluate optimal demand incentives and innovation prizes. We find that antibiotic use lowers mortality but generates substantial resistance externalities: reducing use by 20% lowers resistance by 60%. However, the innovation externality is large and acts in the opposite direction. We show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, antibiotics may often be underused rather than overused. Jointly optimal prizes and utilization policies decrease mortality in our sample by 7.4% and raise welfare by $56.9 billion per year. Across sensitivity
analyses, annualized joint welfare gains range from $12.5 billion to $141.2 billion. More broadly,
the results illustrate how policies that target opposing externalities can yield large welfare gains
when multiple policy instruments are used in combination.

Market Exclusivity and Innovation: Evidence From Antibiotics
Edward Kong and Olivia Zhao* (*JMP)
Pharmaceutical innovation accounts for over one-third of recent life expectancy gains. This innovation is primarily incentivized by patents and FDA-awarded market exclusivities, but the effects of market exclusivity periods on different stages of the drug development pipeline are not well understood. In this paper, we estimate the causal effects of extending market exclusivity for antibiotics, a critical drug class where social value may exceed private returns. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we show that the Generating Antibiotic Incentives Now (GAIN) Act – which granted five additional years of exclusivity for antibiotics but not antivirals or vaccines – increased innovative activity across multiple stages of antibiotic development. Comparing antibiotics to a control group of antivirals and vaccines, we find positive effects on patenting, preclinical studies, and phase 3 clinical trials. We also find larger effects among drugs with more novel patents, and the majority of post-GAIN antibiotics contained novel active ingredients. These findings underscore the importance of financial incentives, such as market exclusivity extensions, in fostering high-quality innovation for socially valuable but commercially challenging drug categories.

Adverse Selection and (un)Natural Monopoly in Insurance Markets
Edward Kong, Timothy Layton, and Mark Shepard
(R&R, Quarterly Journal of Economics)
Adverse selection is a classic market failure known to limit or “unravel”' trade in high-quality insurance and many other economic settings. While the standard theory emphasizes quality distortions, we argue that selection has another big-picture implication: it unravels competition among differentiated firms, leading to fewer surviving competitors—and in the extreme, what we call “un-natural” monopoly. Adverse selection pushes firms toward aggressive price cutting to attract price-sensitive, low-risk consumers. This creates a wedge between average and marginal costs that (like fixed costs in standard models) limits how may firms can profitably survive. We demonstrate this insight in a simple model of insurer entry and price competition, estimated using administrative data from Massachusetts' health insurance exchange. We find a large “selection wedge” of 20-30% of average costs, which (without corrective policies) unravels the market to monopoly. Our analysis suggests a surprising policy implication: interventions that limit price-cutting can improve welfare by supporting more entry, and ultimately lower prices.
In Progress
The Value of Hospice Care: Evidence from Facility Openings
with Yunan Ji and Maya Roy
Trade-offs in Antibiotic Stewardship - Resistance, Screening, and Mortality: a Quasi-Experimental Difference-in-Differences Study
with Erica S. Shenoy, Alyssa R. Letourneau, and David W. Kubiak
Publications

How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
Leemore Dafny, Kate Ho, and Edward Kong
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 16, 3, Pp. 314–46.
2024
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Disentangling Policy Effects Using Proxy Data: Which Shutdown Policies Affected Unemployment During the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Edward Kong and Daniel Prinz
Journal of Public Economics, 189, Pp. 104257
2020
Publisher's version
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